|  To
End the [Palestinian] Violence
January 7, 2003
The Palestinian campaign
of terrorism rolls on, with 22 people murdered in Tel Aviv Sunday. And
even without counting minor incidents involving rocks and firebombs, the
Palestinians average more than 10 attacks on Israelis every day.
Which makes this a particularly apt moment to review my assessment of
a year ago, that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's tough response will cause
the Palestinians to give up on violence.
To begin with, while, the violence continues, it declined throughout 2002:
Attacks dropped by a third from the year's first quarter to its last (from
1,855 to 1,246) - and fatalities fell by more than half (from 157 to 70).
More significant are the many signs pointing to a realization among Palestinians
that adopting violence has been a monstrous mistake. What the Associated
Press calls a "slowly swelling chorus of Palestinian leaders and
opinion-makers" is expressing disillusion with the poverty, anarchy,
detention, injury and death brought by 27 months of violence.
Mahmoud Abbas, the No. 2 Palestinian leader after Yasser Arafat, concedes
"it was a mistake to use arms . . . and to carry out attacks inside
Israel." Abdel Razzak al-Yahya, the so-called interior minister,
denounces suicide bombings against Israel as "murders for no reason,"
demands an end to "all forms of Palestinian violence" and wants
it replaced it with civil resistance. Bethlehem Mayor Hanna Nasser finds
that the use of arms did no good and insists that the Palestinian struggle
"has to be a peaceful one."
Other developments confirm this sense of dismay and a willingness to rethink:
* A sense of despair: "It's over," a man in Ramallah says of
the violence. "We didn't achieve anything." A Gazan is so numbed
by the downward spiral, he utters the unmentionable: "To be honest,
I think reoccupation [by Israel] would be better" than the current
situation.
* Regretting missed diplomatic opportunities: "Didn't we dance for
joy at the failure of Camp David?" asks Nabil Amer, formerly one
of Arafat's chief aides. "After two years of bloodshed, we are now
calling for what we rejected."
* Less support for terrorism: Asked by a Palestinian pollster if the Palestinian
Authority should, once it reaches an agreement with Israel, arrest those
setting off to engage in violence within Israel, 86 percent of Palestinians
said "No" in December 2001. The number fell to 76 percent in
May 2002, then to 40 percent in November 2002 - still very high, but the
trend is clear.
* Fear of retribution: On occasion, prospective suicide bombers have turned
themselves in, or were turned in by their parents, out of fear that the
family house would be destroyed in retaliation.
* Blaming Arafat: When the violence began, Palestinians held Israel responsible
for their many woes. But as time went by, says the pollster Khalil Shikaki,
they turned "very strongly" against Arafat and the PA. One conspiracy
theory holds that Arafat initiated the violence less to defeat Israel
than to deflect growing discontent over the PA's failures.
* Emigration: Fed up with their self-inflicted misery, some 10,000 Palestinians
a month left the West Bank and Gaza during 2002, while many more tried
to flee. At one point, more than 40,000 would-be emigrants were camped
out near Jericho, hoping to enter Jordan.
Perhaps the most affecting sign of a change came last month, when Ahmed
Sabbagh, a self-described "heartbroken" Palestinian father,
took the occasion of the death of his son Ala, a leading terrorist, to
launch an unprecedented appeal to Israelis "to open a new page with
the Palestinian people and to achieve peace based on mutual respect and
justice."
Israelis are beginning to note the change on the Palestinian side. Former
Mossad head Ephraim Halevy has commented on "the buds of Palestinian
recognition" of the mistake in turning to violence. The chief of
Israel's Ground Forces Command, Yiftah Ron-Tal, went further and in November
predicted within months "a decisive victory" for Israel.
The Bush administration should take two steps to speed this process: Let
Israel respond as it sees best, and stop bestowing undeserved gifts on
the Palestinians (the latest: promises of a state in 2003).
The sooner Palestinians realize how counterproductive their violence is,
the sooner they will end it.
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